Cessna Skycourier

The door is impressive.

And I would be a bit more optimistic about how soon it'll be jumped.

The old "short haul airlines, cargo carriers, drug smugglers, then Drop Zone'" route isn't really how it goes anymore.

These days, we have lease operators who buy the planes, and then lease them out to the DZs. New PACs, Blackhawk Caravans, that sort of thing. 
Sure, there are still a lot of King Airs that are basically worth what time is left on the engines, but the supply of those is not infinite (it is still pretty large). 

 

Not if I win the powerball or mega millions. 

Quote

Both freighter and passenger variants of the Cessna SkyCourier will offer single-point pressure refueling to enable faster turnarounds.

Does this mean I will also need to buy a new fuel truck?

The door is huge and sized to accommodate the typical FedEx shipping containers which will greatly reduce their turn-around time.  Unfortunately the door is structural and cannot be opened or removed in flight; it would have to be permanently closed with a smaller door cut inside of it.  First flight of the prototype is currently slated for march.  We do actively brief and practice bailout procedures for emergencies, so who knows...

if you're looking for volunteers to test the bailout procedures, i'm in.

On 12/30/2019 at 5:17 PM, wolfriverjoe said:

The door is impressive.

And I would be a bit more optimistic about how soon it'll be jumped.

The old "short haul airlines, cargo carriers, drug smugglers, then Drop Zone'" route isn't really how it goes anymore.

These days, we have lease operators who buy the planes, and then lease them out to the DZs. New PACs, Blackhawk Caravans, that sort of thing. 
Sure, there are still a lot of King Airs that are basically worth what time is left on the engines, but the supply of those is not infinite (it is still pretty large). 

 

Don't save your jump tickets waiting, Joe. New PAC's and Blackhawk conversions are +/- $1.5M. I've converted 3. Who knows what the tag on these will be but I think new Twin Otters are $6M so they won't be less, I'll guess.

For giggles, it's easy math to know what number will work for jump planes. Figure 20% down and the rest at whatever interest rate you like but think 5-8%, 10 year amortization. That'll give you the monthly mortgage payment. Then figure 2% Hull insurance plus $3-5K for a Million Liability. So a $1.2M loan on a $1.5M aircraft @ 5% will have a $12-13K monthly nut or +/-$180K per year before anything else. Maintenance $20-25K, Pilots $40-50K. Now you are at $250K. Fly it 400 Hours and you'll burn 20,000 gallons of Jet at $4 a gallon. So now you're at $330K per year for 400 hours use. So you'll need to get +800 per hour from operations just for the aircraft. And all of that is only if the thing that was designed to last forever actually does. Good luck with that. Also, a pilot error hot start on a -42A can be north of $250K and it is an uninsured loss. Trust me, I know. Then there are engine reserves and etc. so if you aren't taking in $1100 and hour and have a Hot Section Payment in the bank you could be toast any day.

So at least for now there is a valuation ceiling that is +/- $1.5M. Of course the $75 jump ticket and the $500 Tandem could change all that fast.

All very true.

I'm not an owner or operator so I really don't know the numbers. Yours sound reasonable. As an aside, I know that a 'start error' by the battery box guy on an Otter can be expensive too. As can a takeoff over-rotation error. 

I don't expect to see any of these in the first few years after release (not sure how soon that will happen - certification is not a rapid process). 
But I don't think it's going to take 15 or 20 years for them to become viable jump planes.

Yes, that's a lot of 'wiggle room'.

 

2 hours ago, wolfriverjoe said:

 certification is not a rapid process

Hi Joe,

Well, unless you are Boeing.

Jerry Baumchen

FedEx is taking delivery of their first Skycourier, soon. If I’m reading it right, FedEx will be retiring 12 Caravans a year as these come online. Maybe those Caravans will end up at DZs.

21 hours ago, BMAC615 said:

FedEx is taking delivery of their first Skycourier, soon. If I’m reading it right, FedEx will be retiring 12 Caravans a year as these come online. Maybe those Caravans will end up at DZs.

We can only hope lol